This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Biden | 38% | Trump | 57% | +19% | Mar 03 |
Alaska | Biden | 35% | Trump | 61% | +26% | Nov 10 |
Arizona | Biden | 42% | Trump | 49% | +7% | Apr 13 |
Arkansas | Biden | 35% | Trump | 63% | +28% | Nov 10 |
California | Biden | 54% | Trump | 31% | +23% | Mar 25 |
Colorado | Biden | 49% | Trump | 39% | +10% | Mar 19 |
Connecticut | Biden | 59% | Trump | 40% | +19% | Nov 10 |
D.C. | Biden | 93% | Trump | 6% | +87% | Nov 10 |
Delaware | Biden | 59% | Trump | 40% | +19% | Nov 10 |
Florida | Biden | 40% | Trump | 51% | +11% | Apr 17 |
Georgia | Biden | 44% | Trump | 50% | +6% | Apr 16 |
Hawaii | Biden | 64% | Trump | 34% | +30% | Nov 10 |
Idaho | Biden | 28% | Trump | 63% | +35% | Apr 16 |
Illinois | Biden | 56% | Trump | 42% | +14% | Nov 10 |
Indiana | Biden | 34% | Trump | 55% | +21% | Mar 05 |
Iowa | Biden | 33% | Trump | 48% | +15% | Feb 28 |
Kansas | Biden | 42% | Trump | 56% | +14% | Nov 10 |
Kentucky | Biden | 36% | Trump | 63% | +27% | Nov 10 |
Louisiana | Biden | 40% | Trump | 59% | +19% | Nov 10 |
Maine | Biden | 32% | Trump | 38% | +6% | Feb 14 |
Maryland | Biden | 55% | Trump | 32% | +23% | Feb 13 |
Massachusetts | Biden | 52% | Trump | 22% | +30% | Apr 20 |
Michigan | Biden | 43% | Trump | 45% | +2% | Apr 16 |
Minnesota | Biden | 44% | Trump | 42% | +2% | Apr 07 |
Mississippi | Biden | 37% | Trump | 62% | +25% | Nov 10 |
Missouri | Biden | 32% | Trump | 49% | +17% | Jan 28 |
Montana | Biden | 35% | Trump | 56% | +21% | Mar 02 |
Nebraska | Biden | 40% | Trump | 58% | +18% | Nov 10 |
Nevada | Biden | 43% | Trump | 51% | +8% | Apr 13 |
New Hampshire | Biden | 52% | Trump | 45% | +7% | Jan 17 |
New Jersey | Biden | 46% | Trump | 39% | +7% | Mar 29 |
New Mexico | Biden | 54% | Trump | 44% | +10% | Nov 10 |
New York | Biden | 47% | Trump | 37% | +10% | Apr 17 |
North Carolina | Biden | 41% | Trump | 47% | +6% | Apr 17 |
North Dakota | Biden | 32% | Trump | 65% | +33% | Nov 10 |
Ohio | Biden | 40% | Trump | 51% | +11% | Mar 13 |
Oklahoma | Biden | 32% | Trump | 65% | +33% | Nov 10 |
Oregon | Biden | 54% | Trump | 34% | +20% | Apr 16 |
Pennsylvania | Biden | 47% | Trump | 48% | +1% | Apr 16 |
Rhode Island | Biden | 59% | Trump | 39% | +20% | Nov 10 |
South Carolina | Biden | 37% | Trump | 51% | +14% | Feb 16 |
South Dakota | Biden | 26% | Trump | 55% | +29% | Jan 28 |
Tennessee | Biden | 31% | Trump | 55% | +24% | Apr 02 |
Texas | Biden | 36% | Trump | 48% | +12% | Apr 10 |
Utah | Biden | 38% | Trump | 46% | +8% | Mar 03 |
Vermont | Biden | 59% | Trump | 28% | +31% | Mar 03 |
Virginia | Biden | 49% | Trump | 42% | +7% | Mar 03 |
Washington | Biden | 54% | Trump | 39% | +15% | Apr 16 |
West Virginia | Biden | 30% | Trump | 69% | +39% | Nov 10 |
Wisconsin | Biden | 46% | Trump | 48% | +2% | Apr 16 |
Wyoming | Biden | 27% | Trump | 70% | +43% | Nov 10 |